Analysis of China Fiscal System for Deepwater Oil and Gas Development under Uncertainty

Academy of Chinese Energy Strategy, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, 102249 Beijing, China

^a Corresponding author: wangzhen@cup.edu.cn

Abstract

World deepwater is famous for its rich oil and gas reserves, and has become an important source of global oil and gas supply, with a rising investment which will be over the shallow water counterparts in the next few years, as well as an expansion of oil and gas output. The ‘Deepwater Golden Triangle’ of the North American Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and West Africa has been leading the most exploration, development and investment activities in the world, and their experience on fiscal system during different development stages has great reference value other than advanced technologies. Under the assumptions of uncertain oil price and producing cost, this paper analyzed China fiscal system for deepwater oil and gas development, modeled the free natural resource tax, uplifting the threshold of special oil levy, and other scenarios, and compared their results on contractor’s net presented value, internal return rate and present index. Based on net present value, internal return rate, profitability index, as well as the domestic fiscal policies, this paper found that Special Oil Levy levied only on profit oil and the cancel of government share oil would have the most significant incentives, while lower the income tax rate to 15%, raising the threshold price at which the Special Oil Levy payable by 15 $/bbl and zero Value-added tax have much higher feasibility.