Philippine hedging strategy from the perspective of neoclassical realism

Zhou Enlai School of Government, Nankai University, 300350 Tianjin, China

^* Corresponding author: 2012409@mail.nankai.edu.cn

Abstract

As the main diplomatic strategy of the Philippines towards China, the hedging strategy has been practiced for a long time. In recent years, with the acceleration of Sino-American Geopolitical Competition, as well as the transfer of power in the Asia Pacific region, Southeast Asian countries are facing new strategic decision-making pressure. From the perspective of neoclassical realism, systemic pressure is transmitted through internal factors within a country, thereby determining diplomatic strategy. For the Philippines, the systemic pressure brought about by the Sino-U.S. competition serves as the independent variable, while the domestic security and economic development needs of the Philippines serve as intervention variables, jointly influencing diplomatic strategy. Through analysis, it can be seen that in the new stage of the Sino-U.S. competition, the hedging strategy of the Philippines has changed. During the Duterte period, the Philippines implemented a friendly strategy towards China of “military proximity to the United States and economic contact with China”. After Marcos Jr. came to power, there was a trend of partial checks and balances in the Philippines’ policy toward China. Overall, it still shows a major country balance orientation and will maintain this characteristic in the short term.