Globalization and post-pandemic world order: place of Georgia in transformative international system

. Research background: Many scenarios of organization of the international system of the post-pandemic era has been formulated. Purpose of the article: The purpose of the article is the prediction one of these scenarios using simulation analysis of the situation which will be formed after the economic and political crises caused by COVID 19 and the determination the place of Georgia in post-pandemic globalized order. Methods: structural-functional analysis, geopolitical approach and simulation analyses. Findings & Value added: In the post-pandemic world the globalization will weaken and the role of nation states will increase. In this situation, for states with great military potentials, the establishment of military strategic and political control over countries rich in natural resources and raw materials and also those favorable for transit will gain great importance. One of such regions is the southern Caucasus and Georgia, which has a nodal geographic position. The likely restructuring of the world system caused by theoretical and paradigmatic revisionism of world politics will force Georgia to rethink its place in the system of geopolitical relations in the region to ensure national security and stable democratic development. In this situation polarized worldviews of generations (Orthodox, conservative versus liberal and democratic) will produce two-party system. One of these parties will be oriented to the west and another to Russia. Such party system will ensure the functioning of the security system based on a balanced foreign policy.


Introduction
The post-bipolar era has defined the trajectory of the cultural, socio-economic, political development of the world, humanity, in terms of the realization of globalization as a project of the liberal model. According to the opinion of most scientists, the essence of globalization, in its turn implies transnationalization, homogenization and standardization of cultures. Within specific societies, a policy of sharp individualization of citizen consciousness based on a liberal model of organizing societies has given impetus to the strengthening of the unification processes of nations on a planetary scale. But COVID 19 challenges this ultra individualistic model of social organization. Because of this is " the pandemic disease caused by the novel coronavirus (COVID 19)…a political problem as much as it is a public health tragedy", as Sara E. Davis and Clare Wenham assess the impact of the pandemic on the humanity [1, p.1227]. According to the editors of journal " Territory, Politics, Governance' , " Present pandemic is rising fundamental questions about what makes a community , population and a nation sustainable. Social equity and intergenerational justice are integral to well-being and sustainability in space and over time" [2, p. 290].
Pandemic reveals that individualistic mode of organization of social life lacks the social capital that is necessary to fight it. In our view this explains why the pandemic created institutions disruptions, which determined social movements activity across a number of organizational and societal fields [3] At the same time it should be noted that presumably in the nations with the strong sense of solidarity results of pandemic impact is quite different. As it is determined in the case of Sweden, the pandemic significantly rises trust both in government authorities and at the interpersonal level in unknown others [4] The apology of ultra-individualist model of social organization caused by globalization has weakened social ties in the EU member states and destructed the thinking structure characteristic of national consciousness, which is "so essential for collective political action within a particular nation-state" [5, p.21.]. The structural individualization of public systems, the protection of the principles of an "open society" and transparent borders, and the formation of a common market have contributed to the dominance of the neoclassical economic model based on individualist liberal philosophy. The basic element of globalization based on liberal economic order, in the long run, was the creation of a unity of European states with supranational structures [6], which in the long term period would consequently lead to the integration of Central and Eastern Europe, as well as most of the post-Soviet states, into the core of the global liberal system, i.e. into the engagement zone [7]. If we use Stephen Walt's words, there would be a realization of the principles characteristic of hyperglobalization [8].
The policy of globalization-standardization of cultures and national unification turned out to be a contributing factor of the erosion of nation-states. the modern epidemic situation, in which humanity, all states without exception are individually involved in the struggle against the COVID-19 pandemic, has outlined the ineffectiveness of the functional mechanisms for solving the problems of global institutions. The modern global pandemic crisis has made it relevant for sovereign states to move to an individual, autonomous regime of selfpreservation, which has changed the political model of state behavior on the international arena, both within the Euro-Atlantic space and globally. The Western Hemisphere (and not only), the political class of the states, intended to act against the biological war by neglecting the policy focused on Euro-Atlantic solidarity and orienting on the principle of state egoism.
The factors reviewed above made the analysis of the given issue topical. Therefore, the goal of the authors is simulated analysis of the subsequent stage of the economic and political crisis created as a result of the COVID19 pandemic and to determine place of Georgia in post-pandemic world order. We realize that not a single scenario will be formulated relating to the structural organization of the international system of the post-pandemic era. However, SHS Web of Conferences 92, 010 (2021) Globalization and its Socio-Economic Consequences 2020 50 https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20219201050 the aim of our paper is to predict one of the many possible scenarios, which we support most in the process of studying the issue.

Methodology
Using structural functional analysis, we have decomposed Georgian society into its constituent social groups and identified age groups that can become the social basis for the possible emergence of a two-party system and balanced foreign policy course in postpandemic Georgia. Geopolitical analysis made it possible to highlight the features of the geopolitical position of Georgia and its role in the possible development of competition between the USA and Russia in Georgia in the post-pandemic world.
The simulation analysis was used to derive a scenario for the formation of a post postpandemic world and the place of Georgia in it, based on the possible results of changes in world politics and economics under the influence of COVID 19 and the social and geopolitical characteristics of Georgia.

Socio-economic transformation of the Euro-Atlantic geopolitical space
In the modern world where states are deeply interconnected in a variety of ways, orders are essential for facilitating efficient and timely interactions [9]. But COVID 19 destroys the old order which developed such interactions between states. This has negative impact on the social-economic situation in the world. The events emerged on a planetary scale as a result of the COVID-19 epidemic have led most experts from various international financial institutions and university research institutions to a common conclusion that global economic recession is inevitable. As Kenneth Rogoff, a professor at Harvard University, notes: "it is clearly that we can't avoid global recession, the probability of which is more than 90%." In the view of chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Gita Gopinat, the global economy is in anticipation of a long-term shock [10]. At the same time, most researchers from financial institutions and Futurological Research Centers of the post-epidemic period offer a different percentage of economic decline during the in-depth analysis of the ongoing processes in the global economy. This fact clearly demonstrates the inevitability of the recession .
The integration structure of the "pre-pandemic" global economy was built on the principle of open society, openness of borders and the model of functioning of common marketoriented states. But it should be noted that such order was in the process of reshaping when pandemic begun. As Olga Petrievic and David Teece wrote before pandemic era: "today, we face a new milieu of structural reshaping of the global economic system. The developments we observe are challenging the existing norms and rules that have guided much of our scholarly work and have informed practice this far" [11, p.1489]. They draw our attention to the 'some nations" who try to appropriate more of the benefits from commerce and innovation for their own national champions and special interests undermining the commonly accepted rule of law. Besides it is worth noting that" there are no simple answers how large are gains from trade liberalization " [12, p.80].
The crisis caused by new corona virus in the world, has almost destroyed the model of the functioning of global economy. The quarantine restrictions imposed by each state and the emergency declared by states have contributed the procedures for implementation border closure policy. As a result almost all countries have been closed, both politically and economically, and have been moved into a mode of operation of similar trade entities. At the same time, on the global level the mechanisms for forcibly restriction of transport communication networks necessary for economic relations have laid the ground for the formation of autonomously functioning markets in specific, separate states. The given situation has caused the corresponding negative economic effect. In particular, the demand for products and services was decreased globally, due to which the amount of manufactured products has been declined on the world market. According to the authors of the article "A research at the intersection of entrepreneurship , supply chain management , and strategic opportunities highlighted by COVID-19", "every era seems to experience painful disruptions of normalcy, but the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on commerce were unprecedented" [13, p.1331]. The COVID 19 disruption also reveals the weakness in current behavioral strategy thinking as it is shown by Nicolai J. Foss [14].
It seems that the post-pandemic period will lead to serious economic shifts and a transformation of economic relations..Today's world political or economic map, from the economical system based on the neoliberal economic order and the global common market has been transformed into economically shredded, national market-oriented and fragmented unity of sovereignty backed up states.
Against the background of the economic crisis modeled by us, most states, especially the materially prosperous oriented Western supper developed countries, which are distinguished by effective and highly organizational management style of crises, in order to avoid social unrest will be forced to implement a number of socio-economic and infrastructural projects, in the post-pandemic period, as well as to develop various methodological mechanisms necessary to stimulate the economy. Developed Western states (and not only) in order to meet the material needs of their population and restore the pre-crisis economic situation in the shortest possible time, will be forced gradually begin the process of relocalization the means of production in the condition of autonomous economy, operating in an individual mode. In such a situation, sovereign states, within the framework of national economies, will try to attract state investment and accumulate large sums of money for subsidies in the real sector of the economy; which, at the same time may include the nationalization of private companies on the verge of financial bankruptcy or the procedural development of mechanisms necessary for the acquisition of their assets.
Within specific states, the transformation of socio-economic systems from open to closed systems will be followed by the mobilization of the archaic origin and its floating at the top of the hierarchical stairs of the value structure of societies, which will return the nations living in the sovereign states back to the mental structure, soaked with national myths. This will have a specific effect on the ideological-paradigm composition of the structure of the political system. Thus, the background which reflects the socio-cultural situation of the society will be changed significantly.The structural reconstruction of the economic relations system will also have an impact on the strengthening of revisionist approaches in the field of public relations, in the appeal of liberal ideological platforms based on ultra-individualism. In this case, during the transformation of the socio-economic model the domination of radical forms of conservatism, such as Nazism, Fascism or other similar directions shall be excluded.
Therefore we must assume that the neoliberal socio-economic model is transformed into a model of harmonious coexistence of the basic structure of conservatism and socialism.On the verge of balancing the two ideological paradigms of socio-economic structure, the harmonious hybrid of an organized, functioning system, in terms of cultural organization of the society, on the one hand will rely on National Conservatism with a moderat mix of centrist, liberal element, and on the other hand moderate orientation on the center of ideological spectrum of the leftist, socialism in the field of economic relations. This eclectic model of socio-economic and political organization of society is very similar to the ideological paradigm of conservative socialism formulated by Georges Sorrell [15]. In modern conditions, most likely its modernized version will take place. At the same time, the dismantling of the neoliberal order of socio-economic organization of societies largely determines the consistent transformation of the existing elite structure, with the integration of socially active citizens on the ideological platform of socialconservatism. The procedure of structural renewal of political elites, in its turn, ensures a change in the political behavior of states in the system of interstate relations. Thus, foreign policy based on liberal paradigm in international relations will be rejected. The process of structural renewal of political elites, the model of political behavior of states should rearrange conceptually in international relations, on the theoretical paradigm of realism, which is in the position of the structural antithesis of liberalism.

Place of Georgia in the system of restructuring geopolitical relations
Under the conditions of the forming new world order, the process of transformation of internationalist-liberal theoretical approaches in the system of international relations will strengthen the model of behavior based on the state-centrist matrix and principles of realism. The lack of resources for economic recovery and the elimination of negative consequences of the economic crises will weaken the willingness of the states to deal with regional and global problems. This will reveal the real core of international relations -interaction of government of sovereign states. The behavior of the majority of them in the system of international economic relations will be conditioned by the principle of state selfishness caused by economic factors and focused on the provision of raw material resources.
However, continuous functioning of the process of industrialization of production and the economy in general, directly related to the restoration and development of their national economies by specific sovereign states will depend on the interconnection of chain circles built on the supplying of natural resources and raw materials. At such times, establishing military-strategic and political control over countries rich in natural resources and raw materials, as well as over countries whose geographical location has a transitory functional role from countries with great military potential in international relations will acquire special importance.
One of these types of regions, we should consider the South Caucasus and Georgia, which is located in its key geographical area. If we use geopolitical categories in the analysis, the latter, as a country it is located geographically in central area in the South Caucasus region, two geopolitical axes in a cross-sectional mode simultaneously pass: on the one hand, the north-south connecting vertical and on the other hand, the geopolitical axes located horizontally in the east-west direction.
The possible restructuring of the international system caused by theoretical-paradigm revisionism in world politics will force Georgia, for its security and stable democratic development, to rethink own place and role in the geopolitical relations system of region. To this end, in our deepest belief, the realization of a foreign policy focused on sociological research components and conceptual approaches to the sociology of international relations is a necessary condition. In general, the main paradigmatic aspect of the sociology of international relations pays attention on the formation of foreign policy, which is based on the values of peoples living in specific states, the norms of public relations, traditions and the basic elements of national culture [16].
The sociological analysis of the social structure of modern Georgian society indicates that the society is sharply polarized in terms of worldview relations between the generations. The vast majority of the older generation of the society in the cultural sphere reveals their orientation and devotion to the traditional-conservative value, while in the economic sphere as a society focused on traditional-collectivist values and consequently naturally social solidarity society clearly expresses its active support for socialist ideas. A given public group with the sociocultural peculiarities, mentality, and structural nature of national consciousness fits perfectly to the ideological paradigm of communitarianism. According to the intellectuals studying the communitarians movement, communitarianism, as related to the model of community-collectivist public organization, is in some components related to the traditional value system and, accordingly, to conservative values. Due to the collectivism characteristic of social forms organized under the influence of the system of values of traditionalism, communitarianism highlights primacy of social factors in relation to the individual in the economic sphere, by which it is bringing closer to classical socialism. In short, it is an ideological paradigm based on the harmonious synthesis of traditional-conservative and socialist value elements [17]. As for the younger generation, in terms of worldview aspects, it is predominantly put within the segmental framework of the liberal-individualist thinking paradigm [18]. Of course, this does not exclude the existence of exceptions in terms of value affiliation; in this case we are talking about the general picture. Based on the sociological analysis of the two-paradigm value fragmentation of the Georgian society, and taking into account that "over the long term, value shape partisanship rather than vice versa" [19] it is not so difficult the Georgian political system to transform into a two-pole party systemt, where the youth of the liberal-individualist and, consequently, pro-Western value system in the Georgian reality will be placed on one side of the horizontal political spectrum and the opposite ideological side will be the public segment having the communitarian value consciousness, mainly with the participation of the older generation of society with the foreign orientation to the Russia. As a rule "politicians frequently appeal to social groups" [20, p.4]. But this rule doesn't work in Georgia, where politicians appeal to the whole nation instead of the different social groups, which prevents the creation of stable social base of parties. Formation of the two party system on the different value and foreign orientations of the generations will contribute to the institutionalization of the party system.

Discussion
The ideological-political dualization of the socio-political system and the structuring of the two-pole party system built on it, in the process of defining foreign political trajectories, will have a great impact on the formation of the country's vector competition. As it is known, from the worldview point of view, in the mass consciousness of Georgian society, sociopolitical forces, ideological supporters of cultural conservatism and economic socialism, are always perceived as organizational unions associated with Russia and the Russian world in general. On the contrary, socio-political organizations, apologists of liberalism, individualism, and the capitalist system in economic field are considered as affiliated groups with the United States and the Western world.
In general, it should be said that the post-communist history of Georgia, and especially the post "Rose Revolution" period, was based on the theoretical paradigm of liberal foreign policy in terms of the foreign policy pursued by political elites, which linked the functioning of entire government structures to only one vector -the Euro-Atlantic space and the United States [21], which ensured Georgia's sovereignty. At the same time, in general it should be noted that the Caucasus geopolitics in recent years has been built on a model of mutual restraint and non-accession of unilateral strengthen of large states, which are in a state of confrontation and opposition. But in this competition the Russian Federation lags behind the United States in Georgia with only two parameters: financial-economically and ideologically in terms of its own positive propaganda. However, its geographical location and proximity to the region gives to the Russia the military-strategic advantage over its geopolitical opponent, thus balancing the advantages that the United States has. An empirical confirmation of this is the events of August 2008, which revealed the dangers of the destruction of the balance of Georgia's foreign policy. One of the reasons for this is that the party system of Georgia is almost completely oriented to the west and Russian vector is too weak in the foreign orientations of most of them. Therefore, the best way to avoid the dangerous results of foreign policy imbalances is a construction such of such party system, which would be relied on a two-pole model functioning based on the competition of the parties being on the opposite vector. Such a party-structural construction of the political system will enable Georgia to pursue a foreign policy based on the balance of vector interests. When the unification of political parties with different worldviews, ideological platforms and foreign orientations, consolidated around two political poles would fight to come to power, the external forces would be compelled to provide any assistance to their allied political groups. Their support would be directed to the efforts to prevent the unilateral strengthening of ally political parties of great competing state in the political life of the country. The given situation would make it impossible to totally subjugate this or that political group and, consequently, to establish unilateral and sole control over the political system. After implementation of such a political strategy, no foreign geopolitical entity would be able to pursue a policy of blackmail and intimidation against local authorities. Their main task would be to provide maximum support to the allied political forces, with the prudential calculations and opinions, to restrain the rise of a political force opposed to their Strategic and ideological partner or to balance at the highest level of the hierarchical ladder of government structure. Exactly such kind of political system, built on political and ideological dialectical model, in the geopolitical structure of the region, would form such a regional order where the principle of reciprocity of opposing actors could ensure the functioning of a security system based on balanced foreign policy. And inside the country, it would be transformed into political system functioning on the verge of balancing the political elites standing on ideologically and worldview polarly different political position having an equal social base.
The system of balances enacted as a result of two-pole differentiation of society will significantly increase the degree of democracy of the political system within the country. The thesis formulated by Elvin Toffler, American Philosopher, Sociologist and one of the authors of the concept of the post-industrial society, testifies to the correctness of the theoretical set of the given vision: "Democratic political forms have emerged in the West, not because some geniuses wanted them to originate ... their emergence is related to a historical push for social differentiation" [22, p.518].

Conclusion
In post-pandemic world Georgia will rethink its place and role in the geopolitical relations of Caucasus region. The impacts of post-pandemic economic and political order of the world on Georgia will change its foreign policy where the interests of the USA and Russia will be balanced. This foreign policy focused on reconciling the interests of the super-states interested in the South Caucasus region would increase Georgia's ability to receive political and economic dividends. This would ensure the security of Georgia as a state and the stable evolution of society. Such transformation of Georgia's foreign policy will be the result of formation of two -party system on the social basis of two age social groups one of which will be oriented to the USA and second to the Russia. Post -pandemic economical system will determine acute competition between the USA and Russia in the Caucasus. But their competition and influence on Georgia will be balanced by the two party system formed on the different foreign orientations. This States will try to play by the principle of "zero-sum game". But, during their interaction the pragmatic characteristic and generated sensitivity of the distribution of opportunities, to the difference between costs and benefits, would force both of them to act with approach focused on a possible and realizable profit. In such a situation, based on the balance of structural power in the region, each geopolitically active SHS Web of Conferences 92, 010 (2021) Globalization and its Socio-Economic Consequences 2020 50 https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20219201050 entity, in order not to lose its "piece" and not to allow the competitor to strengthen, would correct the order focused on maintaining the existing one. This, in its turn, would contribute to the precedent of objective care for the security system created by the joint interaction of geopolitical actors.