Industry and environment: modeling the global production impact on CO2

Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, St. Petersburg, Russia

^* Corresponding author: didenko.nikolay@mail.ru

Abstract

The article analyses the impact of global industrial production on CO2 emissions. The global economy comprises such industrial sectors as the primary economic sector (mining, wood processing industry), various processing industrial sectors, energy sector, housing and communal services and transportation sectors. We present the methodology of modelling global economy industrial impact on CO2 emissions. ADL-model (autoregressive distributed lags model) has been chosen as a theoretical basis. Eight variables affecting CO2 emissions per unit of production were chosen as exogenous: the reduction of forest area; the output of energy industries, utilities and extraction industries; wood processing industry; the volume of goods transported; the volume of transportation and communications sectors; the length of roads; the output of industries producing material resources. The primary statistic information on the endogenous and exogenous variables in many countries was collected. The endogenous and exogenous parameters for global economy based on the initial statistic information were defined as the geometric mean indices in the year t. The article presents a model of the global economy industries impact on CO2 emissions. The conclusions about the impact of industrial factors on CO2 emissions are drawn.