The model of system predicting with the use of dynamic arrangement schemes^a

¹ Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, Institute of Industrial Management, Economics and Trade, Higher School of Service and Trade, 195251 Politekhnicheskaya st. 29, Russian Federation
² The Saint Petersburg State University of Economics, Faculty of General Economics and History of Economic Thinking, 19102321 Sadovaya st. 21, Russian Federation
³ Dushanbe Subdivision of National University of Science and Technology “MISIS”, Nazarshoyeva st. 7, Tajikistan

^* Corresponding author: plotnikov_2000@mail.ru

Abstract

The basic problems are considered in the paper connected with solving the problems of forecasting development of enterprises in the conditions of growth of volumes and intensity of information flows in consequence of digitalization of economic processes. The aspects of using a cost approach and also life cycle models of enterprises in the tasks of building the system of planning and predicting activity are considered. An approach to forecasting development of an enterprise on the basis of a dynamic model of the cost growth is proposed by the authors. As the main general indicator fundamental cost of an enterprise is considered, which includes four basic elements. A principle which takes into account dynamic cosubordination of basic indicators of growth of the fundamental enterprise cost is accepted as a basis for the predicting model. A variant of a structure of an adaptive model of dynamic cosubordination of basic indicators is suggested; the structure changes depending on the stage of the life cycle. The represented approach enables taking into account contradictory requirements to the choice of key indicators of development, changing at different stages of the life cycle, and also estimating and predicting the activity of an enterprise from unified positions.