Formation of Analytical Tools of Anti-Crisis Business Regulation on the Basis of Logit-Models

¹ Penza State University, Penza, Russia
² Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia

^* Corresponding author: nikitina_nv@mail.ru

Abstract

Current trends in economic development emphasize the importance of crisis management at both the macro and microeconomic levels. The analysis of current problems of Russian enterprises has shown that at present some outdated approaches to this problem prevail in domestic science and practice. Therefore, a new scientific direction “Anti-crisis business regulation” is becoming increasingly important.

In the world practice, the term crisis-management is not associated solely with the problems of bankruptcy. On the contrary, it is a broader concept that includes a range of problems. Therefore, the technology of anti-crisis business regulation should be universal enough and allow to solve any socio-economic, financial and organizational problem.

The basic tool of anti-crisis business regulation are methods of diagnostics, monitoring and forecasting of the crisis phenomena at the enterprises which have, first of all, preventive character. One of such approaches is a method of forecasting the probability of insolvency (bankruptcy) on the basis of logit-model. This approach, tested on the sample of enterprises of Penza region, has shown a significant increase in the accuracy of forecasts compared to traditional models, for example: Altman and others.