SHS Web Conf.
Volume 65, 2019The 8th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy (M3E2 2019)
|Number of page(s)||8|
|Section||Monitoring, Modeling, Forecasting and Preemption of Crisis in Socio-Economic Systems|
|Published online||29 May 2019|
Study of critical phenomena in economic systems using a model of damped oscillations
Cherkasy Bohdan Khmelnytskyi National University, Department of Economics and Business Modelling, Cherkasy, Ukraine
2 Cherkasy Bohdan Khmelnytskyi National University, Department of Applied Mathematics and Informatics, Cherkasy, Ukraine
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
The article describes the construction of a model for the analysis and forecasting of critical phenomena in economic systems based on the equation of the damped oscillations. The model of the damped oscillations based on the analysis of wavelet coefficient energy allows identifying critical phenomena, in the first place, crashes. Two parameters of the model, the initial phase and the damping coefficient, are the most appropriate for the analysis and prediction of the critical events in the economic systems. The sequence of steps for conducting research is presented and the possibility to automate the process of predicting critical phenomena is described. Critical phenomenon can be predicted based on the initial phase and the damping coefficient, the prediction horizon depends on the scale at which the model of the damped oscillations was constructed. The study of the results of the model is based on the known crashes and shocks given in the work.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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