On the Relationship between Bank Lending Indicators and General Economic Indicators

Yuri Gagarin State Technical University of Saratov, Socio-Economic Institute, Department of Banking, Money & Credit, Saratov, Russia

^* Corresponding author: yurikor1965@gmail.com

Abstract

One of the most important tasks of any state is to ensure stable economic growth. Banks can play an important role in performing this task, primarily by providing loans. The purpose of the study is to identify the relationship between indicators of banks’ lending activity and general indicators of economic development. Index of physical volume of GDP and index of physical volume of fixed capital investment were selected as resultant economic indicators, and growth rate of debt on bank loans (overall and by loan types), the share of loans in fixed capital investment, and the ratio of debt on bank loans to GDP were used as factor variables. The study of the dynamics of these indicators showed that the trajectory of economic indicators has a general tendency to decrease their values; the dynamics of economic indicators depends more on bank lending to legal entities than on lending to individuals, and often reflects the change in the share of loans in fixed capital investment with a time lag; economic growth is more strongly influenced by bank lending to legal entities than by lending to individuals. The revealed patterns indicate the need to develop a monetary policy aimed at stimulating corporate lending and moderate curbing consumer lending.