Long-term budget planning in the context of globalization and its socio-economic significance

Saint Petersburg state University of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Finance, Department of Finance, 21 Sadovaya str., Saint Petersburg, Russia

^* Corresponding author: morunova2009@mail.ru

Abstract

Research background: The process of globalization increases the possibility of a more equitable distribution of income and national wealth, which contributes to the solution of social problems and ensures the development of the material base of human potential. In these conditions, the issues of budget planning of mandatory budget expenditures for the social sphere, in particular for education. With the use of simulation modeling, it is possible not only to implement budget planning more effectively, adjust current social expenditures, but also to increase the horizon of long-term budget planning, which is especially important in conditions of high financial dependence.

Purpose of the article: to study the use of simulation modeling for long-term budget planning of mandatory budget expenditures in the social sphere at the subnational level.

Methods: we have researched based on the application of the “Any Logic” modeling method for long-term budget planning and adjustment of current social expenditures.

Findings & Value added: the study conducted by the authors allows us to conclude that the use of “any logic” for long-term financial planning in the context of globalization makes it possible for States to model social expenditures in the current and future periods. Based on official statistics, the forecast model of mandatory budget expenditures for the social sphere takes into account various factors (changes in demography, the number of recipients of social services, etc.) and provides a forecast of socio-economic development. Long-term budget planning based on simulation models allows you to adjust current social programs, which will improve the quality of life in the context of globalization.