Cognitive Modeling of Socio-Economic Systems with Functional Consideration of the Time Factor

¹ Volgograd State Technical University, Volgograd, Russian Federation
² All-Russian research Institute of irrigated agriculture, Volgograd, Russia Federation
³ Volgograd State Agrarian University, Volgograd, Russian Federation

^* Corresponding author: rafr@mail.ru

Abstract

The research analyzes scientific and methodological approaches for structural and parametric identification of fuzzy cognitive models based on time-dependent functional dependencies. In the process of constructing and identifying fuzzy cognitive models, the stages of structural identification with the definition of a set of concepts and unclear relationships over this set, parametric identification, which implements the transition to fuzzy identification with the definition of the intensity of influence between factors, are implemented. A specialized software system was developed for the purpose of computer support for modeling and studying the influence of the time factor set by changes in the strength of connections between concepts. A representation of each of the elements of the FCM adjacency matrix is proposed in the form of an additive expression controlled by the alpha parameter, which includes a constant component determined by the expert method and a control function that depends on real or dimensionless model time. To correct the elements of the FCM adjacency matrix, it is proposed to use a 3-parameter parabolic or modified 4-parameter exponential dependence as a function that depends on real or dimensionless model time. The developed modified method for solving the problem of time factor accounting using functional dependencies for the strength of mutual influence of concepts provides for expanding the capabilities of fuzzy cognitive models by taking into account the time factor.