SHS Web Conf.
Volume 106, 2021III International Scientific and Practical Conference “Modern Management Trends and the Digital Economy: from Regional Development to Global Economic Growth” (MTDE 2021)
|Number of page(s)||7|
|Section||Digital Technologies in Socio-Economic Systems Management|
|Published online||18 May 2021|
Forecast of the appearance of new strong sectors in the regional economy based on a probabilistic model
Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
The problem of forecasting the appearance of new strong sectors in the region shall be considered. Based on the methods of probabilistic and statistical modeling, a model has been built that makes it possible to assess the occurrence probability of a new strong sector in the region, taking into account the characteristics of the structure of the economy. The possibility of building such a model is based on the assumption that the appearance and development of sectors are largely due to the evolution of past economic activity. The model uses the indicators of nesting of structures of strong sectors of regional economies entered by the authors. These values are based on the probabilistic interpretation and properties of the matrix elements, which assesses the economic complexity, in accordance with the traditional approach. The condition for the appearance of a certain strong sector in the structure of the economy of a particular region with a probability exceeding 0.5 shall be obtained. This condition used to form a list of sectors recommended for priority development in the region. For each region in its structure, the occurrence probability of a specific sector as a strong one was estimated. On the basis of ordering the sectors by the value of these probabilities and assessing their potential contribution to socio-economic development, an expert assessment of the feasibility of developing a new strong sector in the region can be given. Research is focused on the development of theories of localized specialization and economic diversification.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2021
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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