SHS Web Conf.
Volume 107, 20219th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy (M3E2 2021)
|Number of page(s)||6|
|Section||Monitoring, Modeling, Forecasting and Preemption of Crisis in Socio-economic Systems|
|Published online||24 May 2021|
Computational method for risk assessment of regional socio-economic development
Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, 19 Kioto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine
2 National Technical University of Ukraine “Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute”, 37 Peremohy Ave., Kyiv, 03056, Ukraine
3 The Bohdan Khmelnytsky National University of Cherkasy, 81 Shevchenko Blvd., Cherkasy, 18031, Ukraine
In this study, we present the computational method for risk assessment of the socio-economic development of regions. An attempt has been made to develop a method for the determination of integral risk indicators of socio-economic development based on the joint use of the methods of factor analysis and expert evaluation. This approach has increased the reliability of the calculations and made it possible to analyze the influence of socio-economic indicators on the risk level of socio-economic development. The integral risk indicator shows the effect of the inconsistency in the level of factor provision on the socio-economic development of the j-th region (district) in comparison with the general situation in the country (regions). The closer the value of integral risk indicator is to 1, the higher the level of risk in this region. Using Kyiv region districts as an example, the process of risk assessment for regional socio-economic development has been considered. The results obtained in this investigation demonstrate that the presented computational method solves the problem of formalization of risk assessment for the socio-economic development of regions.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2021
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