Opportunities and Threats for Innovative Import Substitution in Russia

Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 620014, Moskovskaya St., 29, Ekaterinburg, R ussian Federation

^* Corresponding author: nvkrivenko@yandex.ru

Abstract

The article examines the development of import substitution in Russia from the historical perspective, confirming the need for an innovative strategy instead of the model of catch-up development. The study investigates international and domestic approaches to the implementation and impact of innovations, noting achievements and considerable potential of Russian science. Analysis of certain economic indicators for the period 2017-2019 revealed positive trends in the development of agricultural industry, negative dynamics of industrial production, a decline in manufacturing production and growth in mining. A decrease in research and development expenditures and a decline in the number of design, design and survey organizations, and researchers led to a decrease in production share of high-tech and knowledge-intensive industries in gross domestic product. There is a slight increase in exports, including its share in world exports. The problems and achievements of import substitution are considered on the example of the agricultural and aviation industries. The SWOT analysis identified the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for the development of Russian import substitution, considering the innovative component. Finally, the paper proposes an author’s approach to a cross-sectoral assessment of import substitute products in order to create an effective import substitution mechanism, considering the innovative component.