Forecasting the Agricultural Risk Insurance System Parameters

¹ Novosibirsk State Technical University, 630087, Novosibirsk, Russia
² Siberian Institute of Management, 630102, Novosibirsk, Russia
³ Private institution “Rusatom-International Network”, 119192, Moscow, Russia
⁴ Tajik state University of Commerce, Dushanbe, Republic of Tajikistan

^* Corresponding author: mkacadem@mail.ru

Abstract

The current insurance market situation is characterised by a high degree of instability. Many factors influence insurance company premiums, including the number of contracts, the claim repayment ratio, capital structure, underwriting profitability and risk. The insurance sector serves as a protective barrier for the country’s economy, defending it from various risks. At the same time, insurance company premiums are influenced by risks too. The number of research articles testifies to a stable interest in this problem. However, there is no technique for establishing the connection between the insurance premium and the many factors it is sensitive to. The article is devoted to the development of new models and, based on them, some digital technologies for forecasting agricultural insurance risk parameters. Based on a paradoxical theory of regulation and inno-diversification approach, an author’s model was developed for forecasting activity. It was used to do calculations of the main indicators of the agiructural risk insurance system. As a result, it became possible to trace the main patterns and tendencies in the development of the agricultural risk insurance system in Russia. Special attention was paid to the period after 2017 when it started to stabilise and recover after the crises as a consequence of nonoptimal managerial solution as refers to the inclusion of the agricultural risk insurance system in the “single subsidy”.