Peculiarities of development the world coal industry in the process of active decarbonization in the world’s economy

Kemerovo State University, 650000 Krasnaja ulica 6, Kemerovo, Russia

^* Corresponding author: rada.ao@kemsu.ru

Abstract

Launch of the process of decarbonization of the economy and ratification of the Paris Climate Agreements in 2015-2016 puts the world’s coal industry in a difficult position. The purpose of the study is to identify the features of the development of the global coal industry, including regional ones, in anticipation of the active decarbonization of the world economy. For this, a quantitative analysis of the dynamics and structure of world coal production in 2010-2020 was carried out. As a result, it was revealed that the impact of the 2020 crisis did not become decisive for production. It can be compared to a price shock or the start of implementation of the Paris Climate Agreements. Some of the dynamics of the global coal production indicator is characterized by a weak declining trend (about minus 0.05% per year), although this indicator is generally unstable. The dynamics of coal production is characterized by the absence of an internal trend of self-development; autocorrelation is observed. The dynamics of coal production reacts to external shocks, while the regional differentiation of this indicator is growing. For 2010-2020 the share of North America and Europe fell to 13%, and the Asia-Pacific region – increased to 75%. Most developed countries are striving to reduce the production and consumption of coal (in the USA, Germany, Poland – by 25-50%), but many developing countries (India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Mongolia) are rapidly increasing production (by 30-70%). This is due to the possibility of exporting and using relatively cheap local fuel for economic development. Therefore, in the medium term, global coal production will remain stable with growing regional differentiation.