| Issue |
SHS Web of Conf.
Volume 164, 2023
11th International Scientific and Practical Conference “Current Issues of Linguistics and Didactics: The Interdisciplinary Approach in Humanities and Social Sciences” (CILDIAH-2022)
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|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 00061 | |
| Number of page(s) | 4 | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202316400061 | |
| Published online | 11 May 2023 | |
Possibilities of application of logistic regression in hydrological forecasts (on the example of the mountain river Samur)
1 Russian State Hydrometeorological University, 79, Voronezhskaya Str., St. Petersburg, 192007, Russian Federation
2 Yerevan State University, 1, Alek Manukyan, Yerevan Str., 375025, Armenia
* Corresponding author: oderiut@mail.ru
The possibilities of constructing regression equations for predicting the runoff of mountain and semi-mountain rivers are considered. A predictive equation for the Samur river catchment has been obtained, which connects water discharge and predictors by casual relationships: water levels, air temperature, air humidity, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, dew point temperature, wind direction, and cloudiness. Logistic regressions are obtained, which allow using categorical variables as independent variables. The result of a logistic regression forecast is the probability of the occurrence or non-occurrence of the event of the predicted value. The positive and negative aspects of this approach for mountain rivers are revealed, which consist of the interpretation of the predicted probability of the event. Actions are proposed that allow for obtaining more reliable forecasts.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2023
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