Research on the Impact of El Nino Phenomenon on the Volatility of the U.S. Soybean Futures Price Yield

Cardiff University

^* Guow15@cardiff.au.uk

Abstract

Frequent occurrences of the EI-Nino phenomenon have made the influence of ENSO on the commodity market a hot research topic. To further investigate the connection between climate change and commodities markets and to offer a benchmark for future economic growth This study focuses on the impact of El Nio on the futures price yield of U.S. soybeans to give a new research direction for academics and investors. This research employs the GARCH-Mean model to estimate returns, then applies the event study approach and parametric tests to see whether there are significant differences in the futures price yield for U.S. soybeans. Test results indicate that EI Nino events have not had a substantial impact on the yield of U.S. soybean futures prices during the recent EI Nino phenomenon. This conclusion indicates that climate change may not be the primary factor influencing the future price of U.S. soybeans, and researchers must consider other factors. In addition, as a result of technological advancement, the government may predict that investors had already prepared for the volatility of the commodity market.