Stock price volume leap principle based on investor sentiment contagion model

¹ School of Economics, Sichuan University, 610000 Chengdu, China
² DUT—RU International School of Information Science & Engineering at DUT, Dalian University of Technology, 116620 Dalian, China
³ Business School of Hunan University, Hunan University, 410000 Changsha, China
⁴ College of Information Science and Technology, Zhongkai University of Agriculture and Engineering, 510230 Guangzhou, China

^* Corresponding author: 2020141490331@stu.scu.edu.cn

Abstract

The rise and fall of the Chinese stock market has been the subject of many studies since its inception. However, the recurring uncertainty of the broad market and individual stocks has overturned many people’s perceptions of the financial market. This paper explores the principles of the rise and fall of individual stocks under certain conditions, starting from Samuelson’s phenomenon of backward bending of the price supply curve for oil and labour, and proposes a methodology for stock market investment based on this principle. The results of the study show that the rise of stock prices is often characterized by a rapid jump. An important factor related to this is the interest rate of private lending. The rise and fall of private lending rates affect the expected return on stock market investment funds and has an important impact on stock market investment. Therefore, in the absence of a qualitative change in the stock’s texture, the medium-term rate of increase is the key to judging the stock price’s later trend. The results of this study provide a new direction to think about when judging the short- and medium-term stock price movements.