Study on the Fitness of ARIMA Model in Stock Forecasting

School of Mathematical Sciences, Tiangong University, Tianjin, China

^* Corresponding author: 2210810047@tiangong.edu.cn

Abstract

With the continuous development of the world’s financial industry, the international stock market trend prediction has now become one of the most closely related to the actual financial industry, with more and more scholars into the research, the accuracy of asset price prediction is constantly improving. Technical analysis is one of the most important components of securities analysis methods. Among the many prediction models, choosing the most appropriate prediction model for modelling according to the specific objectives is twice as effective and has become the source of motivation for the development of this study. In this study, the ARIMA model, which is one of the most popular models in this field of research, is used to forecast two of the most representative assets in the international stock market. On this basis, the results are discussed and analysed to conclude that compared with the CSI300 index, the accuracy of the model’s prediction results for the SP500 is greater, which provides strong support and suggestions for the subsequent research on the two stocks, and also provides a valuable reference for the prediction of the current hot technology methods in the stock markets of different economies.