Risk Analysis, Regulatory Response and Future Trends of Cryptocurrencies and their Derivatives

School of Economics, Guangdong University of Finance and Economics, Guangdong 510320, China

^* Corresponding author: 22250615107@student.gdufe.edu.cn

Abstract

The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has soared from $100 billion in 2019 to $3.83 trillion in 2024, and its derivatives trading volume has accounted for 74.8% of the total market volume in 2023. This study systematically analyzes the risks of high leverage, market manipulation, and lack of regulation in cryptocurrency derivatives, and discusses global regulatory response strategies. By combing the development context of derivatives such as futures, options and leveraged tokens, assessing risks based on case studies and empirical data, and comparing regulatory practices in Europe and the United States, the study finds that ultra-high leverage (up to 100 times) will exacerbate market volatility and liquidation risks, while decentralized platforms and regulatory ambiguity increase the difficulty of compliance. Cryptocurrencies are difficult to play a long-term hedge function in the crisis, and there are potential for money laundering and geopolitical abuse. The study recommends promoting regulatory coordination, adopting AI surveillance technology, and strengthening investor education to curb speculation and maintain market stability, and provide a reference for policymakers and financial institutions to find a balance between innovation and risk management.