Analysis of Influencing Factors on China’s New Energy Vehicle Sales and Forecasting with ARIMA Model

Beijing Technology and Business University, 100048 Haidian District, Beijing, China

^* Corresponding author: Michael18910289575@outlook.com

Abstract

This paper primarily focuses on the sales data of China’s new energy vehicles (NEVs) and the associated influencing factors spanning from 2015 to 2024. It employs a dual-perspective approach: first, conducting a comprehensive visual analysis of total vehicle sales, regional ownership distribution, and model-specific sales performance; second, exploring the underlying drivers of NEV sales, such as government policy, technological innovation, and regional development disparities. Furthermore, the study develops and calibrates an ARIMA time series forecasting model by determining the optimal order and performing parameter optimization, in order to project NEV sales for the next three years. The forecasting results indicate that total NEV sales are expected to grow from 18.29 million units in 2025 to 27.38 million units in 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4%. This steady upward trend suggests that the NEV market in China is entering a phase of maturity and stabilization. The research findings not only provide empirical evidence for evaluating market dynamics but also offer valuable data support for policymakers, automotive enterprises, and strategic planners aiming to navigate the rapidly evolving landscape of sustainable transportation in China.