The Impact of the Sino-US Trade War on China’s High-Tech Industry

Qingdao No.2 Middle School, Qingdao 266071, China

^* Corresponding author: geshuyi07@gmail.com

Abstract

The Sino-US trade war essentially reflects the US strategic containment of China’s technological rise, deeply impacting China’s high-tech industries’ innovation, market share, and global value chain status. This study constructs a “policy shock-technical barrier-industrial response” framework, using Double Difference Method (DID) and mediating effect models to analyze causal effects and transmission mechanisms, alongside heterogeneity analysis on ownership and export dependence. Empirical evidence shows that the trade war has reduced the profits of sanctioned enterprises by 26.5%, but forced R & D investment intensity to increase by 18.2%; technology blockade has led to a 31.7% decrease in invention patent applications, and private enterprises and high export-dependent enterprises have suffered more significantly; supply chain rupture has squeezed profits through a 23.4% increase in operating cost ratio, while market diversification (emerging market exports increased by 18.6%) and technology substitution (imported equipment decreased by 31.7% to drive independent innovation) have become key response paths. The trade war has shown the characteristics of “significant short-term impact, intensified medium-term differentiation, and long-term path reconstruction” on China’s high-tech industry. To solve the “stuck neck” dilemma, policies and enterprises need to coordinate and jointly promote the upgrading of the global value chain to “technology-led”.