Risk Management of Tourism Demand in South-Western Bulgaria through Correlation Analysis

¹ South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, Faculty of Economics, Department of Tourism, 2700 Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria
² South-West University “Neofit Rilski”, Faculty of Economics, Department of Finance and Accounting, 2700 Blagoevgrad, Bulgaria

^* Corresponding author: sophia_mirchova@abv.bg

Abstract

Research background: The geographical location and the favorable natural features in Bulgaria are a solid precondition for the country to establish itself as a traditional tourist destination.

Purpose of the article: This research attempts to find out which parameters affect the processes of tourist demand and supply, thus creating the conditions for optimization of the tourist enterprise as an economic indicator.

Methods: The aim of the study is to make a quantitative assessment of the strength of the dependence between the factors that influence the tourism demand and receiving economic results via correlation and regression analysis. On the basis of this quantitative assessment, the risk can be managed and valuable conclusions can be drawn to improve the use and management of resources.

Findings and Value added: The empirically investigated relationships show whether the level of labor productivity of the analyzed tourist enterprises is affected by the level of employment on the tourist site. It is necessary to intensify the activities for attracting new customers such as advertising, PR., improving the image of the tourist site. All this will have a positive impact on the development of the various forms of tourism and the social situation of the population in the study region. The strong influence of the size of the current expenditures on the economic results, found in all the studied tourist sites, necessitates the improvement of the tourist demand. Managers can apply flexible approaches to managing risk related to expenditures and revenue at the tourist enterprises.