SHS Web Conf.
Volume 58, 2018GLOBMAR 2018 - Global Maritime Conference
|Number of page(s)||12|
|Published online||03 December 2018|
A method to estimate the demand for freight transport in absence of historical data. A case study of the Oder Waterway
West Pomeranian University of Technology, Faculty of Maritime Technology and Transport, 41 Piastów Ave., 71065 Szczecin, Poland
2 Maritime University of Szczecin, Faculty of Engineering and Economics of Transport, 11 Henryka Pobożnego St., 70507 Szczecin, Poland
3 University of Szczecin, Faculty of Management and Economics of Services, 8 Cukrowa St., 71004 Szczecin, Poland
* Corresponding author: email@example.com
The aim of the research described in this article is to work out a method to estimate the demand for freight transport in a situation when no historical data are available, thus rendering it impossible to apply methods based on time series data. The method presented in this article was developed and verified on the basis of an analysis of potential inland shipping operations on the Oder Waterway to/from the seaports in Szczecin and Świnoujście, assuming that the waterway has been upgraded to navigability class III. The analysis was predicated on a demand survey performed among cargo shippers. The obtained research results made it possible to specify the advantages and drawbacks of forecasting based on qualitative methods, and to identify the factors which significantly reduce the reliability of freight transport forecasts.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2018
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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