SHS Web Conf.
Volume 61, 2019Innovative Economic Symposium 2018 - Milestones and Trends of World Economy (IES2018)
|Number of page(s)||13|
|Section||Strategic Partnerships in International Trade|
|Published online||30 January 2019|
Comparison of neural networks and regression time series in estimating the development of the EU and the PRC trade balance
Institute of Technology and Business in České Budějovice, School of Expertness and Valuation, Okružní 517/10, 37001 České Budějovice, Czech Republic
* Corresponding author: firstname.lastname@example.org
China, by GDP, is the second largest economic power, and hence also a key player in the field of international relations. As far as the EU is concerned, it is China's largest trading partner. From this point of view, it is clear that monitoring export and import development between these partners is essential. This paper therefore aims to compare two useful methods, namely the accuracy of time series alignment through regression analysis and artificial neural networks, to assess the evolution of the EU and the People's Republic of China trade balance. Data on the export and import trends of these two partners since 2000 have been used, and it is clear that the trade balance was completely different that year than it is now. The development over time is interesting. The most appropriate curve is selected from the linear regression, and from the neural networks three useful neural structures are selected. We also look at the prediction of future developments while taking into account seasonal fluctuations.
Key words: Trade balance / Export and import / Linear regression networks / Neural
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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