| Issue |
SHS Web Conf.
Volume 73, 2020
Innovative Economic Symposium 2019 – Potential of Eurasian Economic Union (IES2019)
|
|
|---|---|---|
| Article Number | 01027 | |
| Number of page(s) | 18 | |
| Section | Potential of the Eurasian Economic Union | |
| DOI | https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20207301027 | |
| Published online | 13 January 2020 | |
Machine prediction of US imports from the PRC in the context of mutual sanctions
Institute of Technology and Business, School of Expertness and Valuation, Okružní 517/10, 37001 české Budějovice Czech Republic
* Corresponding author: petr.suler@cez.cz
The aim of this paper is to mechanically predict the import of the United States of America (USA) from the People's Republic of China (PRC). The trade restrictions of the USA and the PRC caused by the USA feeling of imbalance of trade between the two states have significantly influenced not only the trade between the two players, but also the overall climate of international trade. The result of this paper is the finding that multilayer perceptron networks (MLP) appear to be an excellent tool for predicting USA imports from the PRC. MLP networks can capture both the trend of the entire time series and its seasonal fluctuations. It also emerged that time series delays need to be applied. Acceptable results are shown to delay series of the order of 5 and 10 months. The mutual sanctions of both countries did not have a significant impact on the outcome of the machine learning prediction.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2020
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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