Prospects for the Formation of a Global Natural Gas Market: Price Analysis of European, Asian, American Gas Markets

St. Petersburg State University, Faculty of Economics, Universitetskaya nab., 7-9, St. Petersburg 199034, Russia

^* Corresponding author: a.v.novikov@spbu.ru

Abstract

Research background: Natural gas markets are facing an ongoing process of diffusion of natural gas liquefaction (LNG) technology. High mobility and relative ease of LNG use predetermine a huge potential for globalization of gas markets and the formation of a single price space similar to the oil world market.

Purpose of the article: The purpose of the article is determining the degree of gas markets convergence and offering an assessment of the prospects for gas globalization.

Methods: The authors conducted a comparative analysis of statistics on historical prices in the gas markets, reviewed the scientific and practice-oriented literature on this topic. The authors developed a brief forecast model based on statistical methods to develop their own assessment of the prospects for the development of a single global gas market.

Findings & Value added: The paper contains the most relevant comparative assessments of the three key gas markets (Europe, Asia, USA) and descripts an authors’ assessment of the potential for the emergence of a global gas market. On the one hand, the authors revealed a fairly high correlation between LNG prices worldwide, on the other hand, LNG supplies are not the only form of gas supplies. In addition, regional pricing features lead to the relative independence of the three markets among themselves. Moreover, the current global crisis may slow down the development of global gas market due to restrictions on the profitability of potentially new LNG projects.