Empirical Research on the Influence of International Crude Oil price fluctuation on Russian Exchange Rate

¹ School of Finance, Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, China

^* Corresponding author: 1272679496@qq.com

Abstract

Oil is a kind of basic energy and has close relationship with the financial markets. Russia is the world crude oil exporter, whose rich energy resources make the country tend to invest in energy industry and make policies for it. This has led to the fact that its national economic structure is too simplified and its economy is heavily dependent on the oil industry. The total oil exports for Russia each year account for up to forty percent of its fiscal revenues. The economic characteristics of Russia and the fluctuation of international crude oil price greatly influence the macroeconomic changes of a country and therefore the exchange rate will make a change too. So this paper, will explore the relationship between the international oil price and Russian exchange rate and the degree of the influence between each other. The paper will select international crude oil price as exogenous variables and take the Russian currency as endogenous variables to establish VAR model. In view of the conclusion, this paper points out the drawbacks of Russia's current economic development, and finally puts forward reasonable and effective suggestions from the aspects of exchange rate system and economic structure.