Analysis and modeling of the impact of restrictive measures on the development of the COVID-19 situation on the example of the Kaluga region

¹ Kaluga State University named after K.E.Tsiolkovski, 26, Stepan Razin St., Kaluga, 248023, Russia
² Financial University, Kaluga Branch, 17 Chizhevskogo St., Kaluga, 248016, Russia

^* Corresponding author: TkachenkoAL@tksu.ru

Abstract

At the time of writing, humanity’s struggle with coronavirus infection has been going on for almost 1.5 years, but the outcome is still unknown. The SARS-CoV-2 virus significantly affects the life of every person, which underlines the urgency of the problem. To combat COVID-19, the authorities of the region take many decisions to delay and slow down the growth of morbidity. This article is aimed at studying the impact of restrictive measures imposed by the authorities on the development of the situation with a new coronavirus infection. A computer prognostic model will be used to compare the effectiveness of each solution for new virus strains and outbreaks of morbidity. Based on the model, the results of the impact of decisions and methods taken by the authorities during the pandemic on the development of the morbidity situation will be analyzed. In order to obtain statistically important data on territorial parameters, the Kaluga region was chosen, taking into account the location near Moscow, where the disease manifests itself most vividly, due to the large number of residents.