Historical Museums of Guanajuato and their Recovery After COVID: A Panel Data Model

¹ Universidad de Guanajuato, Mexico
² Universidad de Guanajuato, Mexico
³ Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica, Costa Rica

Abstract

According to Lobatón et al. (2020) the tourism contribution to the economy of the state of Guanajuato is substantial, in terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with data from the Secretary of Economy (SE, 2023) the tourism GDP before the COVID-19 pandemic amounted to 92,674,800,202 constant pesos at 2018 prices. The participation of historical museums as destinations of interest to locals and tourists should be recognized. According to the Cultural Information System (SIC, 2022) of the Mexican Secretary of Culture, the state of Guanajuato has a total of 1,107 museums distributed in its different municipalities, however, the historical museums that concentrate the greatest dynamism in influx of people are: the Regional Museum of Guanajuato Alhóndiga de Granaditas located in Guanajuato city, followed by the Historical Museum of San Miguel de Allende, and the Casa de Hidalgo Museum. The objective of this research is to analyse the economic impact of tourism activity related to museum visits in the state of Guanajuato before the COVID-19 pandemic and after its emergence, that is, from 2016 to 2022. The analysis is based on a panel data econometric model, where the GDP of the State, and the following explanatory variables: the participation of tourism activity in municipalities with historical museums in the State, the number of residents per municipality, the flow of domestic and international visitors to historical museums in the State, investments in tourism and cultural activity. The results show that if the variable of investment in tourism activities is increased by 1%, an increase of 28.7% in the state’s tourism GDP would be expected. Its participation in the state’s total GDP would be close to 13.1%. In contrast, the main historical museums in Guanajuato are expected to receive 97,363 national and international visitors in 2021 and 266,656 in 2022. In terms of tourism GDP, this recovery has an impact on the economic environment of the state, emphasizing that the performance of historical museums is 16.39% of the total for the state. In summary, we can say that the economic effects of tourism activities are multifactorial, but the study of the environment and the participation of historical museums are essential to stimulate conditions that favour economic growth in the state of Guanajuato.