SHS Web Conf.
Volume 49, 2018International Cooperation for Education about Standardization 2018 (ICES 2018) Conference Joint International Conference with 5th ACISE (Annual Conference on Industrial and System Engineering) and World Standard Cooperation Academic Day
|Number of page(s)||8|
|Published online||02 October 2018|
Application of LEAP model on long-term electricity demand forecasting in Indonesia, period 2010-2025
Master Program of Energy, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia
2 Department of Industrial Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia
3 Department of Electrical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang, Indonesia
* Corresponding email: firstname.lastname@example.org
Electricity demand forecasting is an important part in energy management especially in electricity planning. Indonesia is a large country with a pattern of electricity consumption which continues to increase, therefor need to forecasting electricity demand in order to avoid unbalance demand and supply or deficit energy. LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternative Planning System) as a tool energy model and Indonesia as a case study. Basically, electricity demand is influenced by population, economy and electricity intensity. The purpose of this study is to provide understanding and application of electricity demand forecasting by using LEAP. The base year is 2010 and end year projection is 2025. The scenarios of simulated model consist of two scenarios. They are Business as Usual (BAU) and Government policy scenario. Results of both scenarios indicate that end year electricity demand forecasting in Indonesia increased more than two fold compared to base year.
Key words: electricity / demand forecasting / LEAP / scenario / Indonesia
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2018
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