SHS Web Conf.
Volume 71, 2019Eurasia: Sustainable Development, Security, Cooperation – 2019
|Number of page(s)||4|
|Section||National Interests and National Development Strategies|
|Published online||25 November 2019|
Statistical Research and Modeling of Retail Turnover in the Russian Federation
Samara State University of Economics, Samara, Russia
* Corresponding author: email@example.com.
Retail trade turnover represents one of the most fundamental socio-economic indicators. Constant monitoring of such indicators has a pivotal role in modernization of the Russian economy. Retail trade turnover reflects countries’ economic capacity and standard of living. This paper proposes a statistically significant econometric model of the retail trade turnover dependence with respect to different factors. Such factors as consumer prices index, unemployment level and average monthly designed salary were taken as the explanatory variables. The variables were selected based on Granger causality test and time series analysis of several socio-economic indicators. For each explanatory variable, a statistically significant model ARIMA (1, 1, 0) was constructed, with the help of which the predicted values of the explanatory variables for October, November and December 2019 were calculated, which were used to forecast the retail turnover for these months.
© The Authors, published by EDP Sciences, 2019
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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